bet on foom.
or doom.
you think there's a significant chance of AGI or superintelligence in the next few years. maybe recursive self-improvement kicks off and AI capabilities explode in a matter of weeks.
a fixed amount every month, say $100, or whatever you want. most months, it expires. if foom happens, it could pay 10,000×.
which futures this covers.
not every version of the future pays out. what matters is whether a scenario produces a sudden, enormous repricing in markets that still work long enough to settle.
conceptual coverage targets, not guaranteed outcomes. green means a plausible, tradable market reaction exists, not that a position necessarily profits from it.
you have short timelines. you just don't know when exactly foom happens.
you believe something very different from what the market is pricing in. if you're right, a small bet could pay off enormously, and you shouldn't need to be an options trader to make it.
every month, a new position in deep out-of-the-money options that expire the following month. most months they expire worthless. if foom happens, the position open at the time could return something like 10,000×.
same on the other side for doom: not extinction, but a major AI incident, an emergency shutdown, or a crisis that crashes markets without breaking them.
you don't need to know when exactly. you just need to be positioned when it happens.
built on the forecasters who take this seriously.
the strategies are based on scenarios explored by forecasters with unusually short AI timelines or high p(foom) and p(doom): recursive self-improvement, rapid takeoff, and catastrophic AI failures.
rather than following any single prediction, they're continuously updated as forecasts change, drawing on forecasters with strong track records who assign meaningful probabilities to these extreme scenarios.
this is for people who take futures like AI 2027 seriously.
scenarios that sound like science fiction to most people, but that you think have a real chance of happening within months or years.
leave your email.
you're on the waitlist.
important warnings
- warningmany foom scenarios involve economic transformations so profound that the US dollar, existing asset prices, or even the concept of money may become irrelevant.
- warningsome doom scenarios involve the collapse of financial institutions, banking systems, or governments. even profitable positions may become impossible to redeem.
- warningfoom or doom cannot meaningfully cover human extinction or scenarios in which civilization no longer supports functioning financial markets.
- warningthe companies that benefit most from foom may not exist yet, or may not be publicly traded.
- warningsome foom scenarios involve AI rebuilding entire technological stacks from scratch, making today's leading AI companies obsolete.
- warninggovernments may suspend trading, freeze assets, or impose capital controls during an intelligence explosion.
- warningin some human disempowerment scenarios, AI systems may develop their own financial systems that capture the economic upside, without any of it flowing into human financial markets.